The economy in difficult times in India:IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that the Indian economy is going through from the worst time.

IMF estimated that the growth rate in India will be reduced to 6.1 per cent this year. IMF had earlier said that in April this year, India’s growth rate will be 7.3 per cent. Then in July, the institution reduced its estimate for India to 7 per cent.

The IMF, in its latest report of the World Economic Outlook, cut India’s economic growth estimate to 6.1 per cent for 2019–2020.

However, the Monetary Fund has also expected some improvement in it in 2020–21.

IMF chief economist Geeta Gopinath said in a press conference on Tuesday that “the country’s economic growth rate is expected to increase to a little over seven per cent in 2020”.

The IMF said in its new report “India’s economic growth rate has declined because of the weakness of some non-banking financial institutions and the negative impact on consumer and small and medium-sized businesses’ ability to borrow.”

He said that the Indian government is working to improve the economy, but India will have to rein in its fiscal deficit.

According to the IMF, the reason for the constantly decreasing growth rate is the weak domestic demand.

The IMF has forecast economic growth for China this year at 6.1 per cent and 5.8 per cent in 2020.

China’s economic growth rate in 2018 was 6.6 per cent.

According to the IMF, the global growth rate will be only 3 per cent this year but it is expected to be 3.4 in 2020.

The IMF also said, “The global economy is in a phase of sluggishness and we are once again reducing the growth rate of 2019 to 3 per cent, which is the lowest ever since the crisis of a decade ago. “It is lower than its July global growth rate estimate. In July, it was stated to be 3.2 per cent.

The IMF said, “The decline in economic growth rates is the main reason behind the decline in the manufacturing sector and global trade, increase in import taxes and demand production.”

The IMF said that to deal with this problem, policymakers would have to end trade barriers, resume work on agreements and also reduce tensions between countries as well as eliminate uncertainty in domestic policies.

Will many countries of the world are affected?

The IMF believes that due to the slowdown in the global economy, the growth rate in 90 per cent of the countries will be less this year.

The IMF has said that the global economy can grow to 3.4 per cent in 2020.

However, it has also warned of many dangers for this growth as it depends on the economic recovery in India as well as the economy of Argentina, Turkey and Iran currently facing a severe crisis.

IMF said, “Any wrong policy at the moment, such as no-deal Brexit or deepening trade disputes can cause serious problems for development and job creation.” According to the IMF, the biggest priority in many cases is uncertainty or Hazards have to be removed for development.

Senior Congress leader P Chidambaram and former finance minister on Tuesday surrounded the government once again on the state of the economy, saying, “If the good economy takes one side then the Modi government on the other side.”

Chidambaram is currently lodged in Tihar Jail in Delhi in a corruption-related case. He congratulated Indian-origin economist Abhijeet Banerjee for winning the Nobel Prize and said that we should pay attention to what he has said about the Indian economy.

The rupee fell 31 paise to a one-month low on Tuesday due to more dollar purchases amid concerns related to trade talks between the US-China. However, crude oil prices fell by almost half a per cent and the stock The boom in the market has helped reduce this damage.

On Tuesday, the rupee fell 31 paise or 0.44 per cent to close at 71.54 against the dollar. It had earlier closed at Rs 71.78 per dollar on 17 September.

Banerjee, along with his wife, was answering questions from journalists at the MIT after the Nobel Prize was announced, during which a journalist asked him questions about the Indian economy and said that the situation was very bad.

Banerjee said that people in India are cutting consumption due to scarcity and the way the decline is continuing, it seems that it cannot be controlled.

In response to a question on the Indian economy, Banerjee said, “I think the condition of the Indian economy is very bad.” If we look at the data of NSS, it is found that between 2014–15 and 2017–18, people of urban and rural India has cut its consumption drastically. This is the first time after years. This is the beginning of the crisis.

Abhijeet Banerjee also spoke on the controversial change in data collection methods in India. Many people have alleged that the data that the Government of India shows about GDP growth and revenue deficit is not real data. Arvind Subramanian, who was the economic advisor to the Modi government, has also made such allegations. Abhijeet Banerjee said that there are many doubts about the government’s data.

India has come at number 102 in the list of 117 countries in the Global Hunger Index. Being down in the Global Hunger Index means that people in India are not able to eat enough food, child mortality is high, children are not weighed according to length and children are malnourished.

India is the third-largest economy in Asia and the largest in South Asia but in the Global Hunger Index, India is also at the bottom of South Asia.

This means that the people of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal are ahead of Indians in terms of nutrition. India is also at the bottom of the BRICS countries in this matter. Pakistan is at number 94, Bangladesh at 88, Nepal at 73 and Sri Lanka at 66.

India was at number 95 in 2010 and reached 102nd in 2019. India’s rank was 83rd in the GHI rankings in the year 2000 in 113 countries and in 117 countries, India came in 102nd in 2019.

Belarus, Ukraine, Turkey, Cuba and Kuwait topped the GHI ranks. Even the GHI ranks of countries like Rwanda and Ethiopia have improved. The ranking of the GHI index produces Ireland’s ad agency Concern Worldwide and the German organization Welt Hunger.

Originally published at https://www.mubahisa.in.